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Iraqis' main concern is survival

Most Iraqis are unaware of the Iraq Study Group report to be released on Wednesday. Their primary concern is survival, particularly those living in the central part of the country where sectarian violence, unemployment and poor infrastructure make daily life a dangerous and difficult struggle. But among political circles the Iraq Study Group report is a key indicator of future U.S. policy here and is therefore keenly anticipated.

Shiite, Sunni, Kurdish and secularist leaders are all wondering how soon U.S. troop reductions will begin. All are in favor of transferring control of the military forces to Iraqi commanders as soon as possible, and the U.S. military hopes that will be accomplished within the next six months.

But any indication of a desire to withdraw U.S. troops in the near future is something Iraqi politicians would prefer not to hear about now because it would create pressure on them to eliminate corruption, speed up constitutional reform, come up with an equitable plan to distribute oil revenues and rebuild the economy

Security issue
Overriding these concerns is the security situation. U.S. officials say reforming and strengthening Iraq's security forces will take time and will depend largely on leadership. They have identified only a small number of commanders they believe capable of staying above the sectarian divisions which have slowed progress in the readiness of the army and national police force.

The Iraqis see the delays as more a question of equipment, and are constantly demanding armored vehicles and helicopters to improve the capability of their forces fighting insurgents.

Most Iraqis believe if U.S. forces were to withdraw now the country would be consumed by violence. Shiites, with 60 percent of the population and a keen sense of righting past wrongs suffered on them by decades of Sunni rule, are confident they would win an all-out war by sheer weight of numbers, plus help from Iran.

Sunnis are equally convinced they could win and restore their former dominance in Iraq if aided by Sunni Arab countries like Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Syria. So, if it comes down to survival, neither Shiites nor Sunnis would be against the conflict spreading throughout the region.

Regional involvement
Iraqi political leaders are keen to see what the Iraq Study Group report recommends the U.S. and Iraqi governments do to involve Iraq's neighbors Syria and Iran in resolving the conflict.

To avoid a regional conflict, but primarily to seek help in ending the ongoing sectarian violence here, Iraqi politicians have been reaching out to Iran and Syria.

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani was in Tehran recently, and Syria's foreign minister was in Baghdad last month to restore diplomatic relations with Iraq.

These direct top-level contacts are likely to continue, leading perhaps to a regional conference to discuss the future of Iraq.

While Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is believed to favor such a conference, both President Talabani and powerful Shiite leader Abdul Aziz- al-Hakim have recently stipulated that Iraq's problems should be solved by Iraqis and not outsiders, and that any talks should be held in Baghdad and not outside the country.

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64 COMMENTS

we should turn this into a holy war so we wont have to worry about this any more

'Nation building' doesn't work. Period. Let us leave now.

Seriously, if the Iraqis had managed to depose Saddam on their own, would not the same dynamics be at play?

Majority Shiites would still want revenge on Sunnis, right? Sunnis would still try to hang on to their power. So if we left now, there would be little difference except for all the infrastructure we destoryed and the un-needed 3 years of US troops keeping these factions from boiling down.

Can't we just acknowledge that the idea of nation building is not only arrogant but idiotic and stop already?!

Of course it will not work. The puppet government government set-up by the Bush administration was always doomed to not function. The Bush Administration doesn't really have any history of getting anything right. Fruit of the poisoned tree and all.

I did two tours in Iraq (attached to the 3rd ID and then the 1st ID) and on the streets of Baghdad and Samarra was struck by how even Sunnis were supportive of American troops. They spoke in corny terms of being freed by the heroic Americans (and could not fathom why I was voting for John Kerry, by absentee ballot!) These families can't speak out, other than quiet conversations with US soldiers, for fear of being killed. We will not see many of them allowing CNN to interview them, as opposed to the pro-insurgent minority who don't fear for their lives and can publicly wish for the good old days under Saddam. I hope we don't just ignore this silent majority, many of whom risked their lives just to vote.

Mr. Aspell, thanks for your thoughtful piece. I'm always grateful for the sober analyses of the Iraqi situation. Such reports have been available only recently (the past several months). So much of the reporting prior to that was rah-rah, stay the course, we are winning, we are doing good things there but the media only reports the bad, you are unpatriotic for even questioning the efficacy of this noble policy.

I'm glad to see reports, like yours, that address the reality of the political and economic situation in Iraq. Too many of us here in the USA view the Iraqi people as somehow drastically different from ourselves. It's becoming clear lately that they are not so different. We, in the absence of a political infrastructure, and a police force to honorably enforce rules and keep the peace, and a degradation of accepted social codes of conduct, with rampant unemployment, an occupying force from another nation, and witnessing death and violence everyday, would be behaving very similarly to the way Iraqis are behaving now.

Your article is titled "Survival". Indeed, that is what those poor folks are trying to do against immense odds and horrid conditions. I feel for them and am sad for them every day.

Should we pull out our troops? Of course. But, we have to figure out a way to do this that doesn't create a complete vacuum of order in our wake. Our political leaders, prior to the 2006 election, had foolishly painted the options as only two, "Cut and run" or "stay the course". These are borne of arrogance. Clearly, we have gotten ourselves into a mess which we can't solve. We went into this war with no help; no allies. We can't expect to leave alone. We need help.

Doesn't matter if we like Syria and Iran or not. If we're to pull troops out, we need to sit down with leaders from both of these nations and broker a "team based" security approach that allows the U.S. troops to leave. If Iran and Syria's "hand of power" in the region is strengthened as a result, so be it. We can't expect to extricate ourselves from this mess without giving up something. That something may, indeed, be our prestige and influence in this region.

how about we accept the fact that this is in fact a civil war. We are not the world's police and need to let them fight out there differences themselves. We need to leave the region and work on keeping all outside entities from entering into the battle. then we need to figure out why after the mid-term election the oil prices all of the sudden jump? Last but not least we need to try good ole GW on war criminal charges. Not one reason that he stated is the reason we are there now. No weapons of mass destruction, so now we call it operation iraqi freedom? People don't appreciate what they have unless they fight for it themselves (a lesson americans learned). I am appalled that this president (the worst in history) has not been impeached yet.

It seems to me that people from other regions around the world don't grasp the concept of freedom and democracy that we have in the US and, in the Middle East particularly, they seem to have little regard for human life.
I don't know that that's a good thing or a bad thing...it's just the cultural difference.
Going into Iraq, or any other Middle East country, and trying to set up a carbon copy of our way of government was a project that anyone with even the slightest knowledge of history and culture could/should have seen as doomed to failure.
What now? I don't have a clue. Unfortunately these folks don't seem to want to live in peace and harmony with each other. Until one group or the other is the "winner" Iraq will never be in peace.

Trying to give freedom to another country is not arrogant. I think more emphasis should be placed on winning this war before we pull out our troops. It's not impossible that we could build up an Iraqi police force strong enough to defend the country before we finally get out of there.

The worst-case scenario would be if we pull out and Iraq can't defend itself, becomes consumed in violence and becomes a terrorist haven. As far as the "un-needed 3 years of US troops" goes, most any soldier would be happy to tell you about the progress that's being made in Iraq. Journalists don't get quite the first-hand look at the way things are all the time. Of course, a typical soldier would be pro-war biased, but journalists are not completely objective either.

I guess that's a whole different argument though.

I'll listen to the words of someone who's been there (Graham) over a crowd of whining liberals crying about the failure of nation building and how our President cannot get "anything right."

If anything about Iraq was doomed from the start, it was helped by wishful thinking and hard work from the far Left nutbags who were given a voice by an activist liberal press. Such attitudes served our enemies well by giving them resolve in the wake of a deeply divided America.

Finally, the Left's hatred of President Bush has clouded their vision of the national interests. With no alternative plan for winning the war against militant Islam, they instead placate our enemies with talk of diplomacy, withdrawal, and division within.

If President Bush is a failure for having done something about the global war against terrorism, liberalism is a greater failure for wanting to do nothing about it.

I myself have been to Iraq twice. However; it has been 2 years since i've been there. I can't tell what is going on over there at the time, considering how extremely inaccurate the news can be. In my PERSONAL opinion, based SOLELY off news reports, I do feel that the country of Iraq is on a steady downward spiral to civil war, and I feel that it has been that way for quite some time. I also feel that people should use the words that I have put in caps more often. It would be so much more polite to those people who call George W. Bush their Commander-in-Chief and fought for your right to badmouth what we're fighting for.

Chris says "No weapons of mass destruction..."

How can anyone actually believe such a statement? Sadam used WMD against the Kurds in his own country. Do you believe he said "Use it all up, boys. We'll never need this again."?

WMD was, and maybe still is, there. Every major intelligence group in the WORLD, not just the US, believed that Iraq had WMD. Sadam was tricky but I don't believe he could have fooled 'em all.

Nation building does work. Just ask Germany and Japan. Both nations are economic powerhouses thanks to our rebuilding them after WWII. Perhaps that part of the world is just content living in the dark ages.

I'm sitting in Baghdad right now, reading the articles, and following the threads. Right or wrong we started this process in March of 2003. By invading we kicked over a hornets nest many claim not to have seen. Now, we have an obligation to set things right.

Americans don't cut and run. We would not be a nation if we did. Americans are not here because they love to fight, but because they believe that people deserve better, and that when you make things wrong you damn well better make them right.

We've been a nation at war for more than 5 years, and yet as a nation we have not mobilized for war, made nation-wide sacrifices to support the effort, ramped up the industrial base to ensure a just and timely resolve. Success now requires the American people to become actively engaged, demand an end the contentious and counter-productive internal political debate, call for the US to directly engage all regional parties in open dialogue, and call upon US leadership set a firm course with clearly defined objectives. Then we need to put our collective shoulders to this effort and get the job done right.

That's the American way.

Nation building does work. The problem with American culture is that we can watch a two hour movie, and see WWII summed up. WWII was hard, and if we had the same lack-luster attitude we have today, we would have lost. Before WWII, Japan was a nation lead by an evil dictatorship, whose people were willing to commit suicide for the cause. Iraq is not much different. Unfortunately war is not two hours long, but if America stays commited, and does not have to worry about giving terrorists "rights", than we may have a happy ending.

PEOPLE PLEASE,
BUSH USED THE 911 ATACKS FOR AN EXCUSE TO TAKE OUT SADDAM FOR HIS FATHER BECAUSE SASSAM HAD A HIT OUT FOR BUSH SR. THEN HE WANTED TO PUT AN AMERICAN FRIENDLY NATION TOGETHER THERE SO HIS OIL BUDDIES COULD MAKE A LOT OF MONEY. WAS A GOOD IDEA BUT VERY POORLY EXECUTED.

Nation building worked in Germany and Japan because the countries had some shared cultural beliefs to base a rebuilding on AND they were weary of death and destruction. Apparently, the Iraqis are not weary enough of trying to kill each other to assert which version of their religion is right to see if they can find common ground on which to build a government which will work for them.

First and foremost,thank you Graham for your service to our country.
Second, would the liberals blogging here really listen to what they are saying. Pull out and leave them to destroy themselves?! Bring the President up on war criminal charges? You don't believe Saddam should be put to death either, do you? No brutality when questioning terrorist. Forgetting what they did to Americans on American soil has apparently clouded your opinions. Have you also forgotten the four Americans from Blackwater killed and dragged through the streets and hung from bridges? Or when that came on the news did you turn the station to some actor or actress or musician bashing our country with their opinions that nobody cares about anyway. Forgotten the nearly 3000 troops killed in service to their country. How many times have the liberals here been to Ground Zero? How many funerals of American servicemen and women have you attended? How many times have you been fired on by terrorist' that thrive under the liberal ideas of sanctions and "diplomatic" solutions.
I do not totally agree with President Bush on all issues and yes he has made mistakes on the war policy. But,I am not about to think that the deaths of our warriors have been in vain, which is what your suggesting by just leaving the country. You tell the parents that their son or daughter died for nothing. You explain to the service member that their arms and legs being blown off shouldn't have any factor in the world. Some of us live in the real world. We are exposed everyday to the horrors of what the terrorists are capable of. While others live in a cloud of political correctness and diplomacy.
What are the solutions? No man walking the face of the earth knows. But one thing I do know is that the terrorist are sitting back smiling at the division in America. What is their next attack? It has already been launched. Division not unity. "United we stand" Not any more thanks to liberals.

I see many people who believe the lies told by this administration. They grasp on to what they believe in times of stress...it's too difficult for them to consider other options.

I too believed Bush for a while...then the lack of evidence and the continually shifting goals and yardsticks indicated that he was full of BS.

I also see angry people throwing words like 'leftist' or 'neocon' arround. People like you are just making things worse, simplifying a complex situation into "Us vs. Them". Why do you insist on doing that?! That's some High-School thinking...childish.

It is refreshing to hear from those of you that have been in Iraq and have personally witnessed the suffering of innocent people. While I have not been in Iraq, nor have I had the opportunity to talk to to the Iraqi people. I have traveled to Europe a few times within the past two years.

I have talked to individuals of the Moslem faith, they are people like all other people, they love, hate, feel great saddness as well as, great joy throughout their day and lives. I watched as people I know struggled to deal with the devastation war causes people and nations.

While I attended a summer school for professional counslors, teachers and psychologists this August in Germany. I asked a couple from Israel "where will you go when the summer school is over?" (I was referring to the bombings in Israel)Their response caused me to feel ashamed that I had not already known the answer. Their response was simple, "we will go home, our family is there." The couple later received a report that a bomb had exploded 50 meters from the shelter where their family had been staying. Their family members were OK, but the emotional scars will be long lasting. Even I left my friends feeling immense saddness for those that have suffered in all areas of the region.

Because of my experience this summer I am forever thankful for all the men and women, both listed and unlisted, that try to make life a little better for the Iraqi people.

I believe, that Americans do not realize, while sitting in our ivory tower, that many people through out the region, while so very different in their religion, culture, educational and economic advantages, are still people first. They feel the pain of watching family members suffer and die. We forget that to live even one day in a country at war must take a great amount of courage. We, as Americans, have never known how the simple task of obtaining water and/or food can create a situation where the individual may not arrive home safely. Americans don't realize that while the people in this region have much to work toward to improve their immediate situation, many, even through all their pain, love their country. They love their traditions and their unique way of life. They desire to have the freedom to worship God the way they have choosen to worship. They desire to be Iraqi people,not an American clone.

Americans seem to forget or simply lack the understanding that many people in Iraq at this time, do not have access to the daily resources, education, and flow of information that Americans take for granted every day. I find (us)Americans to be at times arrogant by believing "we" as a nation, have all the answers.

While I enjoy being an American, our culture is not better than the cultures of other places it is simply different.

We have become the catalysist to what I believe to be a civil war. (Which seems to have some of the same attributes as the Rwanda massacre).

America may have gotten more than we bargained for, Iraq may not become that "Glorious" victory we as Americans had hoped would be the result of our actions. However, I believe as one of the most powerful nations in the world we have a responsibility to stay until the region has some stability. We as a powerful nation should not close our eyes to the un-imaginable numbers of innocent men,women,and children that are reported dead each day in Iraq.

Without America staying involved this could be simular to the bystander-effect/syndrom. Where in a crowd, an individual, in this case a country, calls for help while the nations of the world stand by and wait for some one else to take action. Thus preventing the bullies, terrorist or murders of the world from destroying the innocent. We,as a nation,should not stand by while the innocent people of Iraq fall as deathly silent as a lone tree falling in a forest.

J. Nation building only works when applied at the end of a total war against an enemy nation's army AND it's people. When your enemy nations army is destroyed and it's people are cowering in the bombed out rubble, waiting for the shot behind the ear...only then can you pick them up by the scruff of the neck, look them in the eye and say.."Now, you will live as I tell you!"
That is victory. Trying to tame an undefeated people is a fools errand. Fortunately we have just the fool to take it on. When this thing is still going on in two more years and another 5000 aor 10000 Americans are dead, I will see you in the streets.

We need to bring home our service men,then build up our armed forces , Air force and ect. Noone is afraid of us and when we cannot win and lose a lot of
young men over one mans desire ( BUSH) to start a war
we need to know we can win. God help us if they so choose to start one with us. Our men did not have the right wepons and protection when they went over there
and we paid the price. Look how many boys have been blown away we should have sent Rumsfeld over there
all the while he was saying they had enought good wepons and service men. How does Bush and Rumsfeld sleep????

I hope the sample of what I have been reading is not indicative of what most American's are thinking. If it is, I'd better contact my tailor and order my berka now before there is a waiting list. What American landmark will have to fall for you to understand the "radical's" intentions? They have a battle plan for their objective and lucky for them they don't have to tip toe around folks that enjoy freedom but don't have the stomach to fight for it. I pray for this country every day and I pray for those of you that just don't get it.

How can you blame liberals for our predicament? Last time I checked, Republicans ran all 3 branches of govt when we went in. All dissenting voices were quashed. Remember Osama in Afganistan? Why didn't we finish the job? Instead we were told we had to get into Iraq ASAP as they were a grave and immediate threat. They were never a threat. So we are now stuck, and the blame is squarely on the White House. If dems hadn't won the election, we would still be getting spoon-fed BS. This has gone beyond right-left.

Amen, Rick!! Thankyou for your voice of reason.I wish there were more people who had the clarity of vision that you have shown.

I am so sick of the phrase "whining liberals". We're just people with a different point of view. So why don't you take your name calling and stick it where the sun don't shine.

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