Al-Maliki's fragile coalition

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki's first task on returning to Baghdad after his summit with President Bush was to convene a press conference and ask Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's political wing in the Iraqi parliament to end their boycott and return to the political process.

Al- Maliki needs them to preserve his fragile coalition of Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds and secularists. After a suitable period – days or weeks – al-Sadr's men will probably comply. They cannot continue to run the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Health and key government departments forever without government funding.

But al-Maliki has now set himself up to owe al-Sadr a favor, something he'll doubtless be reminded of when under any more pressure from the U.S.-led coalition here to disarm the Mahdi Army, al-Sadr's militia.

Al-Sadr’s influence grows
Street reaction here to al-Maliki's summit with Bush has been largely negative because, other than promising more weapons and faster training of Iraq's security forces, the U.S. had no suggestions for nipping Iraq's civil war in the bud. "It's always words and no action," an Iraqi merchant was quoted as saying in this morning's press. "We want actions to end the violence."

While the killing continues al-Sadr's militia grows stronger. Conservative estimates say he already has more than 20,000 men under arms with another 40,000 trained and waiting for weapons.

In the past the U.S.-led coalition, and the fledgling Iraqi government, has relied upon Iraq's senior Shiite cleric Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani to rein in al-Sadr. But al-Sistani's influence is declining as sectarian killings have increased and more Shiites turn to militias like the Mahdi Army for protection.

Al-Sistani is a theologian and considers politics a deviation from pure Islamic thought. Al-Sadr has no such limitation, and it's clear the coalition has underestimated his political skills. Al-Sadr has inherited - and dramatically expanded - a network of help centers for growing numbers of needy Shiites. His followers distribute food, money and medical aid... and get political support in return.

No ‘big deal?’
Disarming al-Sadr's militia no longer seems to be an option. Which may be why al-Maliki's answer to Bush and his advisors, when pressed about what he was going to do about the militias, was to say it's no "big deal." Because he may have no intention of trying to disarm them.

NEXT POST Iraqis' main concern is survival

EMAIL THIS

53 COMMENTS

It is difficult for me to comprehend that the USA thought it was a good idea to stir up a social and religious hornets nest in Iraq...and then try to fix it.

Mainly because of all OUR inter-race and inter-religion issues we can't fix.

Sean, Torrington CT (Sent Dec 6, 2006 9:17:09 AM)

The thing that scares me about Bush more than anything is his unwillingness to LISTEN. He is so stubborn that the only thing that matters to him is to be RIGHT. No matter what information is presented, if it doesn't make it look like he made the correct decision, then the LIBERAL MEDIA or CUT AND RUN DEMS are to blame; damn the reports, damn the video, damn the media, damn the people.....

When Bush controlled all the branches of government (executive, legislative and judicial), he STILL couldn't get it right. WAIT until the DEMS get in there--get ready for the broken record of how it is all the DEMS and the Media's fault.

Nora Jays, Pittsburgh (Sent Dec 7, 2006 12:28:55 PM)

Sean your racist quote of "goatherders with 1950's technology" appalls me.

Democracy can't be given to someone through military force, no. But a military force can give people the security they need to embrace it, and in case you have forgotten, the Iraqis did embrace it. Now they see where it has gotten them because we only ensure security when they vote, not the day before and the day after.

The Iraqis have spoken several times, and those who accuse Bush of not listening, aren't listening to them either. They are listening to the likes of John Kerry et al, who just say "run for your lives!"

http://tlocfym.blogspot.com

T. Mitchell (Sent Dec 7, 2006 3:17:06 PM)

SEND A COMMENT

PLEASE READ: All comments must be approved before appearing in the thread; time and space constraints prevent all comments from appearing. We will only approve comments that are directly related to this post, use appropriate language and are not attacking the comments of others.

Slide Show

Life beyond the violence
Suicide attacks and murders due to sectarian conflict continue around Iraq. See how residents live their lives amid the attacks.